McCain continues his strong streak in Rasmussen’s general election polls. He led all four match-ups yesterday in Virginia and Wisconsin. Today, Rasmussen released 3 new general election polls, all from relatively reliable blue states — and McCain leads in 5 out of 6 of the match-ups.
- In Washington state, always competitive but clearly leaning Democratic, McCain stays very competitive against Obama (he trails 48% to 43%) and leads against Hillary: 46% to 43%.
- In Michigan, also a tight state which Democrats have come to depend on, McCain looks well positioned to score a major pick-up. McCain edges out Obama 43% to 42% and Clinton 45% to 42%. While both match-ups are toss-ups, even that much is dangerous for Democrats in a state they absolutely need. And these numbers are confirmed by other states which also show McCain competitive.
- The favorability ratings also put the Republican on top: McCain is at 55%, Obama at 50% and Clinton at 47%.
- In New Jersey, finally, McCain also edges out both Obama (46% to 45%) and Clinton 45% to 42%. That’s a stunning turn-around from last month’s Rasmussen numbers, in which Clinton led 50% to 39%; Obama already trailed 45% to 43%.
- The favorability numbers in this blue state are also noteworthy: McCain is at 61%, Obama at 58% (a 6% improvement) and Clinton at 50% (a 6% drop).
It goes without saying that McCain’s strength in all three of these states should greatly worry Democrats. It is hard to imagine an electoral map for either Clinton or Obama that does not incorporate New Jersey, Michigan and Washington. While it is certainly mathematically possible to get to 270 without them, this group of state would not be the first to go and would signal that Democrats are too busy defending states that should be reliably blue to be looking into picking up Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida.
As I pointed out yesterday, Rasmussen’s polls tend to favor McCain more than other surveys, but that is not reason enough for McCain’s chances to be dismissed in these states. The whole point of his general election strength is that his appeal to independents could endanger states like New Jersey and Michigan that have tended to vote Democratic in recent cycles but that have always flirted with the Republican nominee. Add to that the problem of the Michigan delegates and the ill-will that could create in the state against the Democratic nominee.
It’s early in the game, but we have enough indications that much more states than we expected could be in play in 2008 with both sides putting in play states that weren’t considered that competitive in 2004.
Meanwhile, ARG released its first North Carolina primary poll of the year:
- Obama is leading 51% to 38%. That includes a 78% to 17% lead among black voters, while he trails Clinton among whites 49% to 37%.
Obama seems to have taken back a double-digit lead in North Carolina poll, with this survey actually on the lower-end of the 3 polls we have seen from the state over the past 2 weeks (PPP and Insider Advantage being the two others). As I have explained elsewhere, a large Obama win in North Carolina could be as hurtful to Clinton than if she loses Indiana.
Update: PPP released its new North Carolina poll and shows Obama up 54% to 36% — pretty much where it was last week when Obama was leading by 18%. He gets 36% of the white vote and 81% of the black vote.
8 responses so far ↓
Anonymous // March 31, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Interesting polls. What they clearly show is Obama is more elctability than Clinton. He wins WA by 5% (roughly what Gore and Kerry did) and Clinton loses WA. He does better in NJ than Clinton!! He also loses MI by 1% rather than 3%. Of course these polls are months before the GE but any electability argument Clinton had has taken a reality check.
The Wright issue seems ot have blown over as shown by his favourability ratings as well as the poll figures.
Interesting that he is only 12% behind in the white vote in North Carolina and most if not all of this defeict could be due to white women. If Obama comes this close to parity in the white vote and wins by 10%+ then May 6th looks like a bad day for Clinton (unless IN scores a suprise large victory for her).
Anonymous // March 31, 2008 at 5:45 pm
If Obama loses the white vote by only 10% or so this will be viewed as a good result because pundits will say that Southern whites, who are believed to be more racist compared to northern or midwestern voters, would have been expected to vote more heavily against a candidate who is black.
Of course in reality this is false, if anything whites in OH and PA are more racist than VA, NC etc. Look sat the data from VA - a southern state that Obama won by >20% and won the white vote.
mikeel // March 31, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Obama’s formula: Kerry states plus these: IA, NM, CO, NV. Perhaps he can take OH and PA, but probably splits.
Anyway, it’ll be a squeaker.
Anonymous // March 31, 2008 at 9:33 pm
I’ve lived many years in OH and PA and they are a LOT more racist than the south, Even MLK noticed it.And all these GE polls mean absolutely NOTHING.
Anonymous // March 31, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Mikeel I agree the Kerry states plus those you mention. Maybe also VA which is a helpful 13 EV’s.
zoot // April 1, 2008 at 1:13 am
Isn’t it a little early in the process to be making these sweeping predictions based on a few days polling?
Anonymous // April 1, 2008 at 1:50 am
Yes, it’s way early. However, there’s no other data from which to speculate. So with that very substantial caveat, we speculate. One can disagree about whether it’s worth it this far out.
C.S.Strowbridge // April 1, 2008 at 11:14 am
“Isn’t it a little early in the process to be making these sweeping predictions based on a few days polling?”
Please leave your logic out of this debate while we argue about numbers that will become meaningless in a week.
Seriously, at the moment, polls do nothing but give ammunition for political nerds like myself to fire at others. That won’t change till after the national conventions.
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